“There\u2019s this word that we use in poker: \u201cresulting.\u201d It\u2019s a really important word. You can think about it as creating too tight a relationship between the quality of the outcome and the quality of the decision. You can\u2019t use outcome quality as a perfect signal of decision quality, not with a small sample size anyway. “<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
“There\u2019s this word that we use in poker: \u201cresulting.\u201d It\u2019s a really important word. You can think about it as creating too tight a relationship between the quality of the outcome and the quality of the decision. You can\u2019t use outcome quality as a perfe…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[340],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-37591","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-cognition-psychology-biases"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/prY0k-9Mj","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":32898,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/jeff-bezos-on-day-1-vs-day-2\/","url_meta":{"origin":37591,"position":0},"title":"Jeff Bezos on Day 1 vs Day 2","author":"Limbic","date":"January 16, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"I love this letter from Jeff Bezos and wanted to quote it at length. The full letter is at Recode. \u00a02016 Letter to Shareholders April 12, 2017 \u201cJeff, what does Day 2 look like?\u201d That\u2019s a question I just got at our most recent all-hands meeting. I\u2019ve been reminding people\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Business Psychology"","block_context":{"text":"Business Psychology","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/business\/business-psychology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":52194,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/chabuduo-and-10ism\/","url_meta":{"origin":37591,"position":1},"title":"Chabuduo and 10%ism","author":"Limbic","date":"September 2, 2023","format":false,"excerpt":"I enjoyed Austin Healy's post on Stopping at 90%. It reminded me of what we used to call \u201c10% ism\u201d when I lived in Belgrade in the early 2000's. Pretty much anything over there was always unfinished at that time. An entire road would be built, but they would not\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Miscellaneous"","block_context":{"text":"Miscellaneous","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/miscellaneous\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":17531,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/michael-mauboussin\/","url_meta":{"origin":37591,"position":2},"title":"Michael Mauboussin","author":"Limbic","date":"March 26, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"Just heard an interview with Michael Mauboussin on The Knowledge Project podcast (a Farnum Street blog production) and he was super interesting. A few quotes form the podcast. These are paraphrased: \"An expert is someone who has a predictive model that works.\" \"When it comes to decision making, Daniel Kahneman\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Anthropology"","block_context":{"text":"Anthropology","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/science\/anthropology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":16857,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/appeal-to-worse-problems\/","url_meta":{"origin":37591,"position":3},"title":"Appeal to Worse Problems","author":"LimbicNutrition Shorts","date":"November 22, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Also called: The \"Children Are Starving In Africa!\" Argument. Fallacy of relative privation (its proper name). Arguing that expressing concern about a (relatively) small problem means that the person doesn\u2019t care about any larger problems. A ...","rel":"","context":"In "Critical Thinking"","block_context":{"text":"Critical Thinking","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/critical-thinking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":37657,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/information-cascade-lesswrongwiki\/","url_meta":{"origin":37591,"position":4},"title":"Information cascade – Lesswrongwiki","author":"Limbic","date":"February 7, 2016","format":false,"excerpt":"An information cascade occurs when people signal that they have information about something, but actually based their judgment on other people's signals, resulting in a self-reinforcing community opinion that does not necessarily reflect reality.","rel":"","context":"In "psychology memes sociology communications politics"","block_context":{"text":"psychology memes sociology communications politics","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/psychology-memes-sociology-communications-politics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2744,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/the-great-evolutionary-psychologist-dr-david-buss-is-interviewed\/","url_meta":{"origin":37591,"position":5},"title":"The great Evolutionary Psychologist Dr. David Buss is interviewed…","author":"Limbic","date":"February 18, 2004","format":false,"excerpt":"Courage, Not Denial: An Interview with Dr. David Buss BC: Why does evolutionary psychology evoke such strong reactions in people? I\u2019ve noted that when I discuss basic principles with those who have never heard of it before I am met with either enthusiasm or anger. There seems to be little\u2026","rel":"","context":"In "Anthropology"","block_context":{"text":"Anthropology","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/science\/anthropology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37591","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=37591"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/37591\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=37591"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=37591"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=37591"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}