{"id":17531,"date":"2016-03-26T14:02:21","date_gmt":"2016-03-26T13:02:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/?p=17531"},"modified":"2020-09-26T23:06:16","modified_gmt":"2020-09-26T21:06:16","slug":"michael-mauboussin","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/michael-mauboussin\/","title":{"rendered":"Michael Mauboussin"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Just heard an interview with <a href=\"http:\/\/www.michaelmauboussin.com\/\">Michael Mauboussin<\/a> on <a href=\"https:\/\/itunes.apple.com\/gb\/podcast\/the-knowledge-project\/id990149481?mt=2&amp;i=340897492\">The Knowledge Project podcast<\/a> (a <a href=\"https:\/\/www.farnamstreetblog.com\/\">Farnum Street blog<\/a> production) and he was super interesting.<\/p>\n<p><b>A few quotes form the podcast. These are paraphrased:<br \/>\n<\/b><\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>&#8220;An expert is someone who has a predictive model that works.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>&#8220;When it comes to decision making, Daniel Kahneman advises us to use the statistical baseline first (system 2) then Overlay your intuition (system 1), not the other way around or you have confirmation bias.&#8221;<\/li>\n<li>Evaluate your decision making &#8211; track your results. The objective is to make quality decisions over time (like Munger and value investing which is more about avoiding loss than making huge gains).<\/li>\n<li>Lessons from Colonel Blotto &#8211; if you are dominant player you want to keep It as simple as possible &#8211; fewest possible battlefields. &nbsp; &nbsp;Also for weaker then dilute the power Of the powerful opponent.&nbsp; Create more complexity, more battlefields.<\/li>\n<li>Advice for Parents: Instill Growth Mindset (praise for effort not characteristics) , consider opposite viewpoints and learn how to bet ( decision tracking). Teach kids that even though they win a bet, if it was an irrational\/reckless bet, they will lose in the long run. Offer them recommendations, not orders. If you are right, they will learn to respect your recommendations.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>He recommended these books:<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>Consilience by O.E Wilson<\/li>\n<li>Darwin&#8217;s Dangerous Idea by Daniel Dennett (evolutionary thinking is the key wisdom) &#8211; <a href=\"https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Darwin's_Dangerous_Idea\">https:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Darwin&#8217;s_Dangerous_Idea<\/a><\/li>\n<li>Complexity &#8211; <a href=\"http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/COMPLEXITY-EMERGING-SCIENCE-ORDER-CHAOS\/dp\/0671872346\">http:\/\/www.amazon.com\/COMPLEXITY-EMERGING-SCIENCE-ORDER-CHAOS\/dp\/0671872346<\/a> . About complex adaptive systems.<\/li>\n<li>Work rules by Lazlo Bock<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Just heard an interview with Michael Mauboussin on The Knowledge Project podcast (a Farnum Street blog production) and he was super interesting. A few quotes form the podcast. These are paraphrased: &#8220;An expert is someone who has a predictive model that works.&#8221; &#8220;When it comes to decision making, Daniel Kahneman advises us to use the &#8230; <a title=\"Michael Mauboussin\" class=\"read-more\" href=\"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/michael-mauboussin\/\" aria-label=\"Read more about Michael Mauboussin\">Read more<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2},"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false},"categories":[27,139,263,14,42,17,19],"tags":[296],"class_list":["post-17531","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-anthropology","category-critical-thinking","category-interesting-people","category-philosophy","category-psychology","category-science","category-sociology-social-sciences","tag-published"],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/prY0k-4yL","jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":16904,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/decision-engineering\/","url_meta":{"origin":17531,"position":0},"title":"Decision Engineering","author":"Limbic","date":"December 23, 2015","format":false,"excerpt":"Tim Van Gelder, arguably the worlds greatest authority on critical thinking, asks \"What is Decision Engineering?\": \u00a0My favorite definition of the engineer is somebody who can\u2019t help but think that there must be a better way to do this. A more comprehensive and workmanlike definition is given by Wikipedia: \"Engineering\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Business Psychology&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Business Psychology","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/business\/business-psychology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":8271,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/the-downside-of-stories\/","url_meta":{"origin":17531,"position":1},"title":"The Downside of Stories","author":"Limbic","date":"January 5, 2012","format":false,"excerpt":"Interesting speech on \"the heuristic narratological basis of self-delusion\",\u00a0 \"the stories and metaphors we seduce ourselves with\". Transcript is here: http:\/\/lesswrong.com\/r\/discussion\/lw\/8w1\/transcript_tyler_cowen_on_stories\/ Here is one extract from the transcript. Another set of stories that are popular - if you know Oliver Stone movies or Michael Moore movies. You can't make a\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Anthropology&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Anthropology","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/science\/anthropology\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32808,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/taylor-pearson-on-procrastination\/","url_meta":{"origin":17531,"position":2},"title":"Taylor Pearson on Procrastination","author":"Limbic","date":"August 11, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"Taylor Pearson really\u00a0has become a fine essayist. This one on procrastination was packed with wisdom: \"Whenever you feel that some situation or some person is ruining your life, it is actually you who are ruining your life... feeling like a victim is a perfectly disastrous way to go through life.\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Interesting Links&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Interesting Links","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/interesting-links\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":15664,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/avoiding-secularocity\/","url_meta":{"origin":17531,"position":3},"title":"Avoiding Secularocity","author":"Limbic","date":"May 3, 2013","format":false,"excerpt":"The word religiosity means \"excessively religious\". I would like to coin the term secularocity, a companion word that means \"excessively secular\". Now you might wonder why a secularist, agnostic and sceptic like myself is coining words that arguably have a negative connotation regarding secularism? It is a good question, and\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Ethics&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Ethics","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/ethics\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":32814,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/william-dershowitz-on-multitasking\/","url_meta":{"origin":17531,"position":4},"title":"Einstellung effect","author":"Limbic","date":"August 11, 2018","format":false,"excerpt":"There is a well known bias related to this called the\u00a0Einstellung effect, a psychological phenomenon characterized by a fixation on the first solution to a problem discovered at the expense of being able to find potentially better solutions.\u00a0 This is aggravated by multitasking. William Dershowitz on Multitasking: \"Multitasking, in short,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Critical Thinking&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Critical Thinking","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/critical-thinking\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":33078,"url":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/spiritual-unfoldment-with-john-butler\/","url_meta":{"origin":17531,"position":5},"title":"Spiritual Unfoldment with John Butler","author":"Limbic","date":"September 9, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"John Butler is a octogenarian spiritual master. He is also an ASMR superstar because of his amazing voice. My wife and I listen to him at bedtime, partly for the wisdom, partly for soporific power of his voice. His YouTube channel is full of delights. Treat yourselves. https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/channel\/UCi0TFuqj6eND-mJRf8i2Tnw","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Interesting People&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Interesting People","link":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/category\/interesting-people\/"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/2019-09-09-20_31_21-Photo-Google-Photos.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1","width":350,"height":200,"srcset":"https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/2019-09-09-20_31_21-Photo-Google-Photos.png?resize=350%2C200&ssl=1 1x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/2019-09-09-20_31_21-Photo-Google-Photos.png?resize=525%2C300&ssl=1 1.5x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/2019-09-09-20_31_21-Photo-Google-Photos.png?resize=700%2C400&ssl=1 2x, https:\/\/i0.wp.com\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2019\/09\/2019-09-09-20_31_21-Photo-Google-Photos.png?resize=1050%2C600&ssl=1 3x"},"classes":[]}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17531","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=17531"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/17531\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=17531"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=17531"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.limbicnutrition.com\/blog\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=17531"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}