The Five Stages of Collapse

Dmitry Orlov, is of “Reinventing Collapse“, a book about what America can learn from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and currently an in demands expert on how to prepare for the situation the world is facing thanks to the Global recession.

He has a new presentation online via Google Docs called “The Five Stages of Collapse“. He lists the stages as:

Stage 1: Financial Collapse – Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future can no longer be assumed to resemble the past. Risk can no longer be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent. Savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial Collapse – Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Commodities are hoarded. Import and retail chains break down. Widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political Collapse – Faith that “your government will take care of you” is lost. Government interventions fail to make a difference. Political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social Collapse – Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. Local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural Collapse – Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity”.

It is a very interesting presentation and I strongly recommend that readers take the time to view it.

Those of you who lived through the chaos of Russia or Serbia in the 90’s will recognise their countries then, except this time there is no relief from or escape to, The West.

Dmitry is blogging at Club Orlov.

The Five Stages of Collapse

Dmitry Orlov, is of “Reinventing Collapse“, a book about what America can learn from the collapse of the Soviet Union, and currently an in demands expert on how to prepare for the situation the world is facing thanks to the Global recession.

He has a new presentation online via Google Docs called “The Five Stages of Collapse“. He lists the stages as:

Stage 1: Financial Collapse – Faith in “business as usual” is lost. The future can no longer be assumed to resemble the past. Risk can no longer be assessed and financial assets to be guaranteed. Financial institutions become insolvent. Savings are wiped out, and access to capital is lost.

Stage 2: Commercial Collapse – Faith that “the market shall provide” is lost. Commodities are hoarded. Import and retail chains break down. Widespread shortages of survival necessities become the norm.

Stage 3: Political Collapse – Faith that “your government will take care of you” is lost. Government interventions fail to make a difference. Political establishment loses legitimacy and relevance.

Stage 4: Social Collapse – Faith that “your people will take care of you” is lost. Local social institutions, be they charities or other groups that rush in to fill the power vacuum, run out of resources or fail through internal conflict.

Stage 5: Cultural Collapse – Faith in the goodness of humanity is lost. People lose their capacity for “kindness, generosity, consideration, affection, honesty, hospitality, compassion, charity”.

It is a very interesting presentation and I strongly recommend that readers take the time to view it.

Those of you who lived through the chaos of Russia or Serbia in the 90’s will recognise their countries then, except this time there is no relief from or escape to, The West.

Dmitry is blogging at Club Orlov.

Imprinted Brain Theory

There is a fascinating new theory of cognition that goes along way to explaining some of the observed paradoxes we find in mental illnesses.

It hinges around the phenomenon of imprinted genes, genes which are only expressed when they are inherited from one parent rather than the other

It would seem that “A tug-of-war between the mother’s and father’s genes in the developing brain could explain a spectrum of mental disorders from autism to schizophrenia”.

You can read all about it at THE IMPRINTED BRAIN THEORY By Christopher Badcock (Edge 266).

Malcolm Gladwell on Outliers

The Observer have a series of interviews with Malcolm Gladwell, best known for his superb book “The Tipping Point”, and and extracts from his new book “Outliers: The Story of Success“:

Stating the obvious, but oh so cleverly (Sun 23rd Nov 2008) – In investigating what sets geniuses apart, is Malcolm Gladwell also asking what makes him so special, wonders Jason Cowley

The man who can’t stop thinking (Sun Nov 16th 2008) – Malcolm Gladwell is a global phenomenon, one of the most brilliant and influential writers of his generation. His bestselling books, including The Tipping Point and Blink, explore and capture social trends and behaviour in ways that define the age. On the eve of his new book about the nature of success he discusses racial politics, obsessiveness, girlfriends – and his own fear of failure.

Why Asian children are better at maths (Sun Nov 16th 2008) – Extract from Malcolm Gladwell’s new book, ‘Outliers’

A gift or hard graft? – (sat Nov 15th 2008) – [Extract from Malcolm Gladwell’s new book, ‘Outliers’ ] We look at outrageously talented and successful people – the Beatles, Mozart, Rockefeller, Bill Gates – and assume there is such a thing as pure genius. Not necessarily, argues Malcolm Gladwell…

Outliers: The Story of Success – Amazon.co.uk / Amazon.com .

A few more resources:

An introduction to the book and some of its ideas at Malcolm Gladwell’s website.

Secrets of their success (CNN Money) – What separates the legendary CEO from the chronically dissatisfied cubicle dweller? It’s not innate talent, argues Tipping Point author Malcolm Gladwell in his new book.

How to fly high: A genius guide, by Malcolm Gladwell (The Independent) – Malcolm Gladwell, author of ‘Blink’ and ‘The Tipping Point’, looks at the secrets of high achievers in his new book. Here he explains why outsiders like himself always have an edge, and why Obama’s recent win fits his theories

Slate discusses “Outliers”

Outliers: The Story of Success by Malcolm Gladwell (The Times) – reviewed by AC Grayling

The Uses of Adversity – Can underprivileged outsiders have an advantage? by Malcolm Gladwell (New Yorker, Nov 2008)

Malcolm Gladwell: Success Comes from Social Advantages – Psyblog (Nov 2008)

Geek Pop Star – Malcolm Gladwell’s elegant and wildly popular theories about modern life have turned his name into an adjective—Gladwellian! But in his new book, he seeks to undercut the cult of success, including his own, by explaining how little control we have over it. (9th Nov 2008)

Backlash against Gladwell and his ideas?

Is the Tipping Point Toast? – Marketers spend a billion dollars a year targeting influentials. Duncan Watts says they’re wasting their money. (Fast Company, February 2008)