Guest blogger Steve Hurford examines Serbia’s options in what he sees as very much Serbia’s post Kosovo era
Serbia has just lost its heartland, the spiritual home of the Serb Nation and, quite frankly, a beautiful but ultimately useless lump of rock with an ungovernable majority Muslim population.
Many would have you believe that Serbia is currently split down the middle on which way to go now: towards Russia who will never stop to support a single Serbian territory which includes Kosovo, or towards the EU who have just ’stolen’ it from them along with the arch-enemy and great Satan, the USA. The truth, as always will lie somewhere between the extremities. However, the fact remains that almost to a person, Serbs are furious at the loss of Kosovo and would feel immense satisfaction, relief and justification if one day they can reclaim Kosovo.
A lot is being written about the justifications, the rights and wrongs, the crimes and accusations surrounding the demise of Yugoslavia and the on-going whittling-away of Serbia. This article will not consider those points, there are enough eminent minds in that space so perhaps a greater focus is required on the tasks-at-hand facing Serbia in order for it to achieve a brighter future. This is not the future the West or Russia seeks to impose on it but the future that Serbia wants.
What Serbia wants is quite simple really: to take back Kosovo, to have a strengthening economy, freedom to travel, a future for its children and inclusion of its opinion on the global platform.
But what does it mean to “take back Kosovo”. Serbs, please excuse my choice of words insinuating that Kosovo has gone, but in reality its as gone as the life-force of Schroedinger’s Cat, whether or not you choose to look in the box. But it need not remain that way forever. During a recent, largely peaceful demonstration against the unilateral deceleration of independence by Kosovo, Serbia’s famous film-director Emil Kosturica stood next to the prime minister and addressed the crowd with the words “the myth of Kosovo is as strong to us as the myth of Hollywood is to the Americans” (or, I believe, words to that affect). Strong and strange words that appear to have a double meaning. On one hand its a warning not to underestimate the strength of Serbia’s feelings towards its spiritual homeland and on the other hand an indication that Kosovo is not a place, not a piece of land, but an idea, a faith, a belief…
Serbia is currently suffering what is touted as its final humiliation by some commentators and there is some truth in that (the word humiliation at least, less so for the prospect of “final”). Its soul has been ripped from it by an enemy that is at the same time opening a door with welcome arms to the EU if Serbia can accept its ‘punishment’, swallow its pride and doth its cap. This is the perception which will doubtless give victory to the Nationalist (and newly-partnered moderate Nationalist) during the upcoming elections. The pro-EU coalition will retain its strong support but will not attract a significant number of moderate swing-voters to win the fight.
Going back to what Serbia wants, the problem with the pro-Russia strategy is that it will achieve neither of the stated objectives. Russia may be seen as a strong ally and great future prospect for some Serbs, but as a mere shadow of its former self, it is unlikely to be able to offer anything more than a harsh and selfish shoulder to cry on. Russia is fully engaged in the drama of recovering its own soul to be of any practical use to Serbia in the struggle for Kosovo.
Possession being 90% of the law and all that, if Serbia is to recover Kosovo, then it is going to have to deal themselves with whoever took it, and to all intents and purposes, that is the EU. Serbia is geographically in Europe, it will be surrounded by EU countries later on this afternoon (in historical terms) and is currently little more than a chip in the ‘fight’ between the EU and a resurgent Russia. A fight between the world’s largest economic power and the world’s 11th largest economic power (just in front of South Korea). Now I’m not a gambling man, but if I were I’d pawn the shirt on my back to take odds on that bet.
It has often been said that the best way to change a system is from inside that system, given of course that you don’t have the clout to force changes by other means. A parallel to this argument is that Serbia’s best chance of regaining Kosovo is to join the European Union. If, lets say, we accept this as a premise, then most certainly joining the EU would lead to the attainment of the other stated aims of Serbia (strengthen its economy, travel freedom, future for its children and inclusion of its opinion on the global platform). The question therefore remains, how by joining the EU will Serbia regain Kosovo?
The answer to that question, like most elegant solutions, is decidedly simple: the EU will one day give Serbia back what it took and will be very relieved to do so.
Lets consider briefly Kosovo’s future outlook. It is by any measure, bleak. Unless the EU is to seriously lower its standards for entry, and to do so would would risk the whole union, Kosovo is and will remain indefinitely a candidate plagued by corruption, inefficiency, poverty, fundamentalism and immigration challenges. One day the EU will open its eyes and realise that Kosovo as an EU member is a lost cause without the assistance of Serbia because like it or not, Kosovo is bound by geographical limitations and a dependency on its neighbours for survival. Given Kosovo’s choice of neighbours, this means Serbia. For its part, Serbia will need to adopt a radically different approach towards Kosovo and its majority Muslim population but that is a far from unrealistic scenario as Tito’s Yugoslavia so vividly demonstrates. Perhaps though, this day will have to wait until Serbia once again produces a politician of Tito’s caliber, genius and diplomacy.
By leveraging its geographic and social advantages in the region, Belgrade can one day be the hub of the NewYU, a resurgent Yugoslav dream that unites the peoples of this troubled part of the world for mutual economic gain, but this time not as a nation, but as a union of EU members pulling together to guide and address unbalance in the EU policy arena.
Until that day however, Serbia’s smart-play is to vote against the recent past and join the EU, not as a cap-holding supplicant but as a new player to the EU card table who says “fine, its your game, for now, deal…”.
4 Comments
No, Kosovo is not lost. , and repeating that it is, that the Serbs should just give up, is not going to make it so, or this fantastical idea of Kosovo independence any closer to reality.
No, Serb future does not lie with the EU. Eu that has bombed, demonised, and humiliated Serbs. Further humiliation is what the Serbs will receive from the EU in the future if they give up now.
Serbs branded as war criminals in Kosovo. By what proof? What does the war crimes tribunal have to say on this? Still looking for proof, it has to be there? Like the WMD in IRAQ?
Serbs should march all the displaced persons into Kosovo right now, straight through to all the Serb enclaves. Is the UN, EU, USA going to stop this mass of humanity with bullets?
Many have underestimated Russia’a military abilities in the past - Napoleon, Hitler, Hirohito. Now the EU is inheriting the mantle of outside powers that ‘misunderestimate’ Russia.
The EU is premised on a world view that economic success guarantees peace. The problem is that the EU is not bringing economic success, and it has no fallback position if war does threaten. Russia will exploit these weaknesses ruthlessly.
As far as I know Serbs were the only nation who delivered their sitting president (crook or not-crook) to the foreign prison, knowing full well that he’d be found guilty no matter what. Serbs were bombed into the stone age on account of Albanian agitprop - nobody bats an eye. If Otto von Bismark was ever right, he’s right about the source of future conflicts. The geopolitical quagmire is so cleverly disorganized that any party can resort to an armed struggle against any other party at any time. Was that the “the PEACE” NATO was trying to secure? Or was that the instability which, by definition secures only future conflicts, sales or arms and ammunition, finds willing recruits for future wars highly motivated and ready. When it smell like it, feels like, looks like it, you call it - what it is. In a famous dialogue between Henry II (partially French himself) the English monarch and his frequent opponent’s (Louis) son the new French King Philip the dialogue went something like this although all eyewitnesses are dead:
Henry II: I came to offer you peace….
Phillip: Piss on your peace. You neither have the power to wage a war not maintain a steady peace….
Such was the youthful impertinence, but accurate and concise. Henry II’s eldest son Richard the Lionheart (Coeur de Leon) was the next ruler of England with roots on both the continent and the islands.
I brought up the English and the French since their hostilities started rather early (about 9th century AD, if I am not mistaken) and only officially ended at Waterloo. To this day the French and the English can’t see eye to eye. Why would the Serbs be forced to cohabitate with the terrorist Arnauts who were on a clear path usurp the Serbian government for over 50 years.
I absolutely agree with Tim above that the time just about perfect for another military conflict in Europe - and this time in the Balkans.
NATO will not fight over Kosovo. NATO can’t even round up enough troops to be deployed to Afghanistan. The Europeans and Canadians are constantly quarreling with the Americans, who are putting enormous pressure on them to send more troops to that country. The Americans don’t want to send more of their own soldiers to Afghanistan, for the simple reason that they don’t have them. They have no strategic reserve. In military terms, NATO itself is in a state of collapse
The American military is broken. In fact, it so desperate that it is accepting (remember it has a volunteer military) high school dropouts, people with criminal records and illegal aliens into its ranks. The illegal aliens are promised American citizenship if they join. In normal circumstances none of the aforementioned groups would be accepted into its military.
The situation in Iraq is so bad for the American military that they have resorted to paying their enemies, the Sunni insurgents, $10 a day not to attack their soldiers. That, in and of itself, is astonishing.
So for all of you who think that Serbia has no chance, militarily speaking, against NATO and America think again. The American public will not tolerate another war nor would the European public. When the body bags start coming back to America and the other NATO countries, the you-know-what will hit the fan.
The only viable military option for the West is air power. Nuclear weapons are out of the question. At any rate, the American air force and NATO would be very reluctant to go up against the Serbian air defense system. In the 1999 air war they lost quite a few aircraft, anywhere from 40 to 100, plus at least 6 troop carrying helicopters in which scores of soldiers were killed. These helicopters were sent in to rescue downed pilots and airmen.
the Serbs acquire Russian weapons such as the highly effective S300 or even the more advanced S400 air defense systems, any American or NATO aircraft attacking Serbia would be on a suicide mission. An airplane has less than a 10% chance of surviving an attack by these high altitude long range air defense systems. They would be shot down before they even reached Serbia or before they did any damage. For those of you who doubt that, do the research.
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